World Cup 2026 June 22 Predictions: My Picks, Ratings and Irish Kick-Off Times

Monday is the day Groups I and J finally get a second look at themselves. Argentina open the card with Messi one goal from breaking the all-time World Cup record, France close their group-stage business effectively against Iraq, Norway and Senegal serve up the only true coin-toss on the slate, and the Jordan v Algeria nightcap is the small-hours afterthought for Irish viewers. Below is my verdict on each fixture, with a confidence rating out of 10 and the price I think is worth taking. I would rather give you one or two picks I actually believe in than dress every game up as a banker.

A quick housekeeping note on the prices: odds here are taken from the worldcup-2026.bet consensus moneyline and are correct as of 22 June 2026 ~10:00 ET. They will drift through the day, so treat them as a guide and confirm the live number with your book before backing.

Argentina v Austria — 6:00 PM IST, Arlington — 8/10 Confidence

This is the one Irish living rooms will actually sit down for, and it deserves more than a paragraph — I have given it a full match preview and verdict here. The short version: Argentina are 1.58 favourites, the draw 3.65, Austria a 5.38 outsider, and Messi sits one goal from breaking Klose’s all-time World Cup record after his hat-trick v Algeria.

Opta-style models have Argentina at roughly 65% on the result — a fair price of about 1.54 against the offered 1.58 — so the bare moneyline is neutral. The edge is sideways: Messi anytime scorer at a fair number is the single bet I would talk a friend into; Argentina –1 is the structural secondary. Austria are without Baumgartner for the tournament but have Alaba and Posch cleared to play. Confidence in an Argentina win: 8/10, but the value is in the player and handicap markets.

France v Iraq — 10:00 PM IST, Philadelphia — 7/10 Confidence

France are 1.08 on the consensus moneyline with Iraq at 27.84 — about as one-sided a price as the bookmakers will write at a World Cup. The Opta model has France at 88.5% and the fair price implies 1.13, so 1.08 is short of the model line and there is no edge on the bare result either way.

The actual edge is in the player markets. Mbappé is France’s all-time top scorer after his brace v Senegal (58 international goals) and this could be his 100th cap. Mbappé anytime scorer is the single-bet starting point; France team total over 2.5 is the structural lean. The full reasoning sits in the France v Iraq verdict. Confidence in a France win: 7/10 — meaning the result is borderline certain but the price is not bettable. The bet I would actively avoid is Iraq draw-no-bet at a short flattering number.

Norway v Senegal — 1:00 AM IST, East Rutherford — 8/10 Confidence

This is the under-the-radar match of the slate and the one I will be up for. Norway are 2.04 favourites, the draw 3.41, Senegal 3.22. Opta gives Norway 45.0%, Senegal 29.6%, the draw 25.4% — implying a fair price of 2.22 on Norway, so 2.04 is a fraction short of the model line and the streak data (11 consecutive competitive wins, Haaland scoring in all 11) does the rest.

I am leaning firmly on Norway to win at 2.04 as the cleanest single of the slate. Haaland anytime scorer is the structural secondary. Both teams to score is the third-best angle given Senegal’s attacking quality and Norway’s still-developing defensive structure. The full case sits in the Norway v Senegal verdict. Confidence in a Norway win: 8/10.

Jordan v Algeria — 4:00 AM IST, Santa Clara — 5/10 Confidence

A genuinely unsociable hour for Irish viewers and the game I am happiest to skip. Algeria are heavy favourites at 1.47, the draw 3.98, Jordan a 6.24 outsider. The market is right to make Algeria short — they lost their opener 0–3 to Argentina but the underlying performance was respectable, and Mahrez is reported back in the starting XI after a tactical benching against Argentina, two-source confirmed. Jordan are missing Yazan Al Naimat for the tournament (ACL, December 2025) and have Abdallah Nasib doubtful with a knock from the Austria game.

There is a wrinkle. Jordan have already had their World Cup moment — Ali Olwan’s goal against Austria was Jordan’s first-ever World Cup goal — and a young squad that has scratched its history is dangerous in a no-pressure spot. But 6.24 on Jordan is short for a reason, and 1.47 on Algeria is the kind of price where if you were going to back it you would already be on. I am off the result entirely. If I had to have an interest, Algeria –1 handicap is the more efficient way to express the favourite. Confidence in an Algeria win: 5/10, which is my polite way of saying leave it alone.

My Verdict: One Slam-Dunk Single, One Sideways Play, Two to Watch

The one bet of the night I am most confident in is Norway to win at 2.04 — a fair-priced single in a coin-toss the bookmakers and the model genuinely disagree on. The most fun bet of the night is Messi anytime scorer on a record-chase night in front of an Argentinian-leaning crowd. The most efficient bet of the night, if you are going to take it, is France team total over 2.5. And the bet I would talk a friend out of is anything on Jordan v Algeria; there are easier ways to lose money.

If you are running an Irish-facing book like WinRolla or Boomerang Bet, the Monday picks would be: Norway to win as the single, Messi anytime scorer as the player-market lean, and France team total over 2.5 as the structural play. Shop the numbers — late-evening Senegal money will move the Norway price, and the Mbappé number will tighten once the line-ups are confirmed.

18+. Gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Odds correct as of 22 June 2026 and subject to change.