Croatia at the 2026 World Cup — Modric’s Last March and Group L Clash
Luka Modric will be forty-one years old when the 2026 World Cup opens. Forty-one — an age where most footballers have been retired for half a decade. Yet here he is, still pulling the strings for Croatia, still dictating the tempo of matches with the casual authority of a man conducting an orchestra he has played with for twenty years. The 2026 World Cup will almost certainly be Modric’s final tournament, and for Croatia, his presence — or absence, or diminished capacity — is the single variable that will determine whether this campaign ends in the Round of 32 or somewhere deeper in the bracket.
Croatia land in Group L alongside England, Ghana, and Panama. It is a group that guarantees at least one high-profile fixture and demands a level of quality that only the best squads can sustain across three matches. Croatia have been that kind of squad at every recent World Cup. Whether they still are, with an aging midfield and a generation in transition, is the question this tournament will answer.
The Modric Era — and What Comes After
I was in the press area for Croatia’s 2018 World Cup semi-final, and the image that stays with me is Modric at the end of extra time against England — legs cramping, shirt drenched, face drained of colour, but still demanding the ball, still playing passes that nobody else on the pitch could see. That is the essence of Modric: a player whose technical quality is matched by a competitive fury that defies age and physical decline. At forty-one, the technical quality remains — his passing range, his first touch, his spatial awareness are as sharp as ever. What has declined is the physical output: fewer sprints, fewer recoveries, fewer kilometres covered per match. The result is a player who can still control a game’s tempo but can no longer dominate its territory.
The coaching staff face the same dilemma that every team with an aging legend confronts: how much of the system do you reshape around his limitations? In qualifying, the answer was significant — Croatia moved to a 4-3-3 that positioned Modric as the deepest of a midfield three, reducing his running demands while keeping him at the centre of the build-up. The system worked well enough against mid-tier European opposition, but the World Cup will test it against sides — like England — who press with the intensity and athleticism to close down a slow-moving deep midfielder before he can release the ball.
Behind Modric, the succession planning has produced promising but unproven replacements. Lovro Majer has the technical quality to inherit the playmaking role, and his performances in Ligue 1 suggest a player ready for the step up. But inheriting a role at club level and inheriting it at a World Cup — with ninety thousand people watching and the weight of a nation’s expectations pressing down — are fundamentally different propositions. If Modric starts all three group matches and arrives in the knockout rounds with tired legs, Croatia’s attacking quality diminishes. If he is rested for one group match and his replacement struggles, the result could cost them qualification. Neither option is risk-free, and the balancing act will define Croatia’s campaign.
Group L — England, Ghana, Panama
The England-Croatia rivalry at World Cups needs no introduction. The 2018 semi-final — which Croatia won in extra time — and the 2022 group-stage draw have established a dynamic where both sides understand each other’s strengths and weaknesses intimately. The Group L rematch will be a tactical chess match, and the result will likely depend on which side controls the midfield. If Modric can dictate the tempo, Croatia have a chance. If England’s pressing pins him back, the contest tilts decisively towards the English.
Ghana bring physicality, pace, and a squad that blends European club experience with raw athleticism. Their midfield runners will test Croatia’s ageing legs in a way that few European sides can, and the physical demands of the match could leave marks that affect Croatia’s performance in subsequent fixtures. Panama are the group’s underdogs — competitive, spirited, but lacking the individual quality to trouble Croatia if the Croatians approach the match with full seriousness.
My projected finish: England first, Croatia second, Ghana third, Panama fourth. Croatia should qualify, but the margin over Ghana may be tight. The key match is the opener — if Croatia face England first and lose, the pressure on the Ghana and Panama fixtures intensifies to a level where the squad’s composure will be tested. If they face a weaker side first and bank three points, the England match becomes less existential and more tactical.
The fixture order matters enormously for Croatia’s betting profile. A slow start — a draw against Ghana or a defeat against England — would create a scenario where the final group match becomes must-win, and the pressure of a must-win fixture has historically been kinder to Croatia than it has to most sides. Their 2018 run included two consecutive penalty shootouts in the knockouts, and the mental steel required to win those situations is a resource that most opponents cannot match. Still, relying on mental steel rather than results-from-comfort is not a position any punter wants to be backing with their money.
Tournament Pedigree — 2018 Final, 2022 Semi
Croatia’s tournament record over the past eight years is extraordinary for a nation of four million people. A World Cup final in 2018, beaten only by France. A World Cup semi-final in 2022, eliminated by Argentina. A Nations League final in 2023. These are results that nations ten times Croatia’s size would celebrate for decades, and they speak to a football culture that produces players of exceptional technical quality and competitive mentality generation after generation.
The pedigree matters for betting purposes because it suggests Croatia will not freeze at the World Cup. They have been in high-pressure knockout matches repeatedly, and the muscle memory of winning them — or competing in them until the final minute — is embedded in the squad’s DNA. New players absorb that culture from the veterans around them, and the expectation of deep tournament runs becomes self-reinforcing. At 33/1 or 40/1, Croatia offer a profile that few sides at similar prices can match: genuine knockout-round experience, a proven tactical system, and a squad that does not beat itself.
The counter-argument is that the 2018 and 2022 runs were fuelled by a midfield trio — Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic — that is now either aging or retired. The replacement parts are skilled but do not yet function with the same telepathic understanding that defined Croatia’s best football. The midfield transition is the biggest risk to Croatia’s 2026 campaign, and if it has not been completed by June, the results in Group L will suffer.
There is also the question of physical conditioning. Croatia’s previous deep tournament runs demanded extraordinary physical output from the midfield — extra-time matches, high-intensity pressing over ninety minutes, recovery between fixtures spaced just three or four days apart. The 2018 squad had the athletic capacity to sustain that output across seven matches. The 2026 squad, with an older core and a less physically imposing replacement generation, may not. If Croatia face a scenario where the knockout rounds require extra time — as they have in five of their last seven World Cup knockout matches — the physical demands could exceed what the squad can deliver. That is not a reason to dismiss Croatia, but it is a reason to limit the length of your positional bet to the group stage rather than extending it into the deeper rounds of the bracket.
Odds Verdict
Croatia are priced around 33/1 for the outright — roughly level with sides like the USA and Morocco. That price implies a win probability of about three percent. My estimate is similar, perhaps marginally higher at three to four percent, which means the price is approximately fair. At 40/1, Croatia would become a genuine value bet. At 33/1, the expected value is essentially zero.
The better bet is Croatia to qualify from Group L, priced around 4/5. In a format where eight third-placed sides advance, Croatia’s floor is high — they would need to finish fourth in a group where Panama are clearly the weakest side. The probability of Croatia finishing third or higher is, in my assessment, around seventy percent, making 4/5 a slight value proposition. It is not exciting, but it is grounded in probability rather than hope.
For match-specific bettors, the England-Croatia fixture offers the most interesting market. The draw at full time is typically priced around 9/4 to 5/2 for matches between these two sides, and the history — a semi-final and a group-stage draw in their last two World Cup meetings — suggests this price underestimates the probability of a stalemate. Both sides are tactically disciplined, both prioritise not losing over winning aggressively, and both have the defensive quality to keep the other at bay for ninety minutes. The draw is the bet I like most in Croatia’s entire group-stage schedule.
The Insider Take
Croatia at the 2026 World Cup are a farewell and a transition wrapped in a single tournament. Modric’s last dance provides the emotional narrative. The generational shift in midfield provides the tactical uncertainty. The Group L draw against England provides the drama. For Irish punters, Croatia are best approached through the group-stage markets — qualification bets, correct group finish, and the match-specific markets around the England fixture. The outright is a romantic bet, not a value one. Let Modric have his moment in the spotlight. Keep your money on the outcomes you can predict.