Belgium at the 2026 World Cup — The Golden Generation’s Last Hurrah?
For the better part of a decade, Belgium were the team that everyone picked as dark horses — and then as genuine contenders — and then watched fall short at the crucial moment. Third place in 2018, group-stage exit in 2022, quarter-final defeat at Euro 2024. The trajectory tells its own story: a golden generation that peaked around 2018 and has been in managed decline ever since. The 2026 World Cup may be the last tournament where the names De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Courtois appear on the team sheet together, and the question is whether there is one more deep run left in legs that have carried Belgium to the brink so many times without ever reaching the summit.
Belgium land in Group G alongside Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand — a draw that, on paper, is among the most favourable in the tournament. But favourable draws have been traps for aging sides before, and Belgium’s group-stage record at the 2022 World Cup — where they lost to Morocco and drew with Croatia before being eliminated — should temper any assumptions about a comfortable passage.
Golden Generation Status Check
Let me put the aging question in stark numbers. By the time the 2026 World Cup kicks off, Kevin De Bruyne will be thirty-five. Romelu Lukaku will be thirty-three. Thibaut Courtois will be thirty-four. Jan Vertonghen has retired. Toby Alderweireld has retired. Eden Hazard has retired. The spine of the side that finished third in Russia has been hollowed out by time, and the replacements — while talented — do not carry the same weight of experience or the same instinctive understanding of how to win knockout football at the highest level.
De Bruyne’s fitness is the single most critical variable. His injury record over the past three seasons has been concerning — two significant absences that cost him multiple months each time. When fit, he remains one of the most creative midfielders in world football, capable of producing passes that no other player in this tournament can imagine, let alone execute. But “when fit” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. A World Cup demands peak physical condition for three to seven matches across a month, and De Bruyne’s body has repeatedly shown that it cannot sustain that level of output without breaking down. If he makes it through the group stage healthy, Belgium become a side nobody wants to face. If he breaks down in the second match, Belgium’s creative engine stalls, and the supporting cast must carry a burden they are not accustomed to bearing.
Lukaku’s role has evolved. He is no longer the all-action centre-forward who ran defences ragged with pace and power — at thirty-three, his game is more about positioning, hold-up play, and finishing quality. His goal record remains impressive, but the goals come from fewer touches and fewer movements, which means the supply line to him must be more precise. Without De Bruyne threading passes into the channels, Lukaku becomes less effective, and the attack loses its primary goal threat. The interplay between the two — De Bruyne creating, Lukaku finishing — has been the foundation of Belgium’s attack for nearly a decade. If either component falters, the structure collapses.
The younger generation offers hope but not yet certainty. Jeremy Doku provides electric pace on the wing, Amadou Onana adds physical presence and ball-carrying ability in midfield, and Charles De Ketelaere has shown flashes of creative quality that suggest he could eventually fill the playmaking role that Belgium will need to fill when De Bruyne finally steps aside. But “eventually” and “now” are different, and the 2026 World Cup is “now.” The younger players have not been tested in the kind of high-pressure knockout environment that defines tournament football, and their integration into the system alongside the aging veterans is still a work in progress.
Group G — Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Group G should be Belgium’s to lose. Egypt are the strongest of the three opponents — a side built around Premier League and European-based talent, with Mohamed Salah (if fit and selected) providing the kind of individual brilliance that can decide any single match. Iran bring the defensive organisation and competitive intensity that characterised their 2022 World Cup campaign, where they came within minutes of qualifying from a group containing England and the USA. New Zealand are the weakest side in the group and will be heavy underdogs in every fixture.
The Egypt match is the one that concerns me most. Egypt’s defensive structure is well-drilled, and their willingness to sit deep and absorb pressure before hitting on the counter is exactly the approach that caused Belgium problems at the 2022 World Cup. If De Bruyne is not at full capacity, Belgium’s ability to break down Egypt’s low block is questionable — the supporting creative options are decent but not at the level required to unpick an organised defence without the world’s best playmaker pulling the strings.
Iran will be physical, competitive, and difficult to beat. Their game plan will mirror Egypt’s — defend deep, frustrate Belgium, and look for moments on the transition. In a group where two of the three opponents adopt the same defensive approach, Belgium’s ability to be patient and maintain attacking discipline across three matches becomes the decisive factor. Against New Zealand, the result should be comfortable, but even that fixture carries value for bettors in the handicap and total-goals markets.
My projected finish: Belgium first, Egypt second, Iran third, New Zealand fourth. The Group G winner market prices Belgium around 2/5, which is fair. The value play is Egypt to qualify — priced around 5/4, which underestimates their quality and the threat Salah poses in any single match.
The Squad in Transition
The transition from golden generation to next generation is the most delicate phase in any national team’s cycle. Get it right and you maintain competitiveness across two or three tournaments. Get it wrong and you endure a wilderness period that can last a decade. Belgium are in the middle of that transition, and the 2026 World Cup will reveal whether the coaching staff have managed it successfully.
The defensive unit has undergone the most significant change. The Vertonghen-Alderweireld partnership that defined Belgium’s back line for a decade has been replaced by a younger, less experienced pairing. The new centre-backs are physically capable and technically sound, but they lack the tournament experience that allows senior defenders to manage pressure, organise the players around them, and make the right decision in split-second situations. Courtois, behind them, provides a safety net — his shot-stopping and commanding presence in the box compensate for some of the defensive uncertainty — but a goalkeeper cannot solve every problem that the defence creates.
The midfield is where the transition is most visible. De Bruyne and Axel Witsel (if selected) represent the old guard, while Onana, Youri Tielemans, and the younger options represent the new. The question is whether both generations can coexist in the same system — the veterans demanding the ball and dictating tempo, the youngsters wanting to press and run, and the coaching staff trying to balance both approaches without losing the thread of either. In qualifying, the balance was achieved through a 4-3-3 that gave De Bruyne a free role while Onana and a second midfielder handled the defensive workload. That system works when De Bruyne is fit enough to cover ground in the press, but when his energy dips — as it did in the second half of several qualifying matches — the midfield becomes lopsided, with one side pressing and the other walking. Opponents at the World Cup will target that imbalance with ruthless precision.
The wide positions offer Belgium’s most encouraging development. Doku on the left and Leandro Trossard or Johan Bakayoko on the right bring pace and directness that the previous generation — Hazard aside — could not consistently provide. Doku in particular has become a genuine difference-maker: his dribbling success rate is among the highest of any winger in European club football, and his ability to beat a man in one-on-one situations creates the kind of chaos in the final third that structured passing cannot always achieve. If Belgium have an ace in the hole for this tournament, it is Doku in full flight against a tiring full-back in the second half of a knockout match.
Odds Assessment
Belgium are priced around 25/1 for the outright, which places them in the third tier of contenders — behind the top six favourites and roughly level with sides like Croatia and the USA. That price implies a win probability of around four percent. My estimate is slightly lower — perhaps three percent — which puts fair odds closer to 33/1. At 25/1, Belgium are marginally overpriced relative to my assessment, but not enough to make them a strong value bet.
The issue is the ceiling. Even if everything goes right — De Bruyne stays fit, the defence holds up, the younger players perform — Belgium’s realistic ceiling is a quarter-final appearance. The squad does not have the depth or the tactical flexibility to win four consecutive knockout matches against elite opposition. The 2018 semi-final run, which remains their best World Cup performance, was achieved by a younger, hungrier, more physically explosive version of this side. Replicating that with older legs and less certainty in key positions is a stretch that the odds do not adequately compensate for.
Where I see value: Belgium to reach the Round of 16, priced around 4/7. This essentially requires them to finish in the top two of a group they should win, and the price offers a small return for what I consider a high-probability outcome. Beyond the Round of 16, Belgium’s prospects diminish rapidly, and I would not extend any positional bet further into the tournament.
The Insider Take
Belgium at the 2026 World Cup are a farewell tour. The golden generation will play their final matches in the red shirt, and the emotion of that occasion will carry them through the group stage with energy and purpose. What it will not do is replace the pace, the power, and the precision that made this group special in their prime. For Irish punters, Belgium are a side to watch with appreciation for what they have achieved and caution about what they can still achieve. The group stage will be comfortable. The knockout rounds, if they get there, will be where age catches up. Back Belgium to qualify from the group. Leave the outright to someone who has not watched them slow down over the past four years.